Bitcoin (BTC) is entering a critical trading phase after losing the key $115,000 support level, with selling pressure intensifying across major timeframes. The bullish momentum that fueled recent gains has faded, and current price action signals growing market weakness. As investor sentiment shifts from cautious optimism to concern, fears of a deeper correction toward $110,000 are gaining traction among analysts.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler, Bitcoin has set short-term resistance at $112,000 — a constructive sign suggesting an attempt to stabilize. However, Adler warns that the $112K–$105K range remains structurally fragile, acting as the last buffer before more aggressive downside risks. If sellers push BTC below $105K, it could trigger a long-liquidation cascade and shake out short-term holders.
With macroeconomic uncertainty and declining ETF inflows weighing on sentiment, Bitcoin’s next move depends on how price reacts within this range. A breakout above $112K would indicate resilience, while a breakdown could open the door to a broader market correction.
Short-Term Holder Pressure Mounts as Bitcoin Struggles to Regain Momentum
Adler points out that Bitcoin’s current market structure shows growing vulnerability among short-term holders (STH). The realized price for STHs in the 1-week to 1-month range is around $117,000, meaning this group is now underwater. Historically, these investors are more likely to react emotionally to short-term volatility, increasing the risk of panic selling if negative catalysts emerge — potentially triggering a chain reaction of sell-offs across the market.
The $105,000 level remains a critical support zone, based on aggregated STH realized price data. If BTC enters this range, holding pressure will intensify, but it could also act as a strong technical and psychological floor that slows or even reverses the bearish trend.
“The market remains weak,” Adler reiterated, maintaining his bearish stance from the previous day. He emphasized that retail investors are failing to drive the price higher, with the lack of sustained demand adding to the market’s structural fragility.
Adding to the stress are weak U.S. employment figures, sparking speculation about possible Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. While such moves could be bullish for risk assets in the long term, the current uncertainty is weighing heavily on already fragile market sentiment.
Bitcoin Faces Resistance Cluster in Recovery Attempt
On the 4-hour BTC chart, a key battle is unfolding just below the $116K resistance zone. After briefly dipping below $113K earlier this week, BTC has recovered and is now trading near $115,478, approaching the 100-SMA and 200-SMA — currently at $116,596 and $115,799 — which are acting as upper resistance.
The price is also attempting to reclaim $115,724, a former horizontal support now turned resistance from July’s consolidation phase. This resistance cluster, made up of moving averages and key horizontal levels, is a significant short-term hurdle. A clear breakout above this zone, supported by strong trading volume, could signal renewed bullish momentum and open the path toward retesting the $122K range high.
However, volume remains relatively low compared to July’s breakout, and repeated failures to reclaim higher levels suggest buyers are still cautious. Unless BTC can reclaim and hold above $116K, the risk of rejection remains high, potentially sending the price back toward the $112K–$113K support band.
Key Takeaways for Traders
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Resistance Levels: $115,724 – $116,596 – $122,000
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Critical Support Levels: $112,000 – $110,000 – $105,000
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Risk Trigger: Drop below $105K could spark liquidation cascade
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Bullish Scenario: Break and hold above $116K with strong volume
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Bearish Scenario: Failure to break $116K could lead to retest of $112K–$110K
